TBH, a leading project delivery consultancy, has announced the launch of its new Integrated Defence Risk Management service, designed to transform how defence programmes manage risk by shifting from qualitative judgement to quantitative, data-driven decision-making.
The new service responds to a long-standing challenge in defence project delivery: translating abstract risk conversations into clear, measurable impacts on schedule and cost that senior decision-makers can act on with confidence.
“Major defence programmes can’t rely on red–amber–green indicators and qualitative assessments that don’t give leaders the confidence to act,” said Moataz Mahmoud, Director of Risk Services at TBH. “Our Integrated Defence Risk Management service draws on a deep understanding of defence and its three pillars – time, cost and risk. It delivers quantified, cascaded impacts that account for interdependencies and the butterfly effect, fully integrated with the master baseline. The result is a pragmatic yet sophisticated framework – simple to implement, bulletproof in effect, and built for real decisions.”
From abstract risk to actionable insight
The service is underpinned by four founding principles that distinguish it from traditional approaches:
- Risk is treated as a function of time and cost, not an abstract concept.
- A scalable and tailorable approach adapts to project maturity and complexity using Bottom-Up, Hybrid, or Top-Down methodologies.
- Clear accountability structures are established across programmes.
- Structured simplicity is prioritised over rudimentary or overly complex models.
“We see risk not as a standalone discussion topic, but as a factor that directly determines when projects will finish and what they will cost,” Mahmoud explained. “That shift – from ‘this might be a problem’ to quantifying the likely time and cost impact under real conditions – fundamentally changes how leadership teams engage with risk.”
Methodology aligned to project maturity
The service applies Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis (QCSRA) through a calibrated “lift and shift” approach. Rather than being driven by project size or profile, the level of analytical sophistication is matched to the maturity of available information.
“An early-stage project using strategic assumptions and top-down factors isn’t less mature,” Mahmoud noted. “It’s applying the right level of analysis for the information at hand.”
The methodologies are aligned with Defence acquisition gates, from Project Initiation Review through to Project Closure Review, ensuring continuity and consistency across the project lifecycle. A particular focus is placed on identifying and quantifying uncertainty, a frequent but underestimated driver of schedule delays and cost overruns.
Programme-level integration
For complex, multi-stream defence programmes, the service enables integrated risk management across governance layers and delivery streams.
“One of the biggest challenges in large defence programmes is that risks in one stream can cascade into others,” said Peter La Franchi, National Defence Director at TBH. “Our approach makes these interdependencies visible and manageable at programme level, while keeping each stream focused on its own local risks.”
All quantitative analysis is anchored to the Integrated Master Schedule (IMS), providing a single, consistent foundation for understanding and managing schedule risk drivers across projects.
Implementation and capability building
TBH’s implementation roadmap typically spans around 12 months, moving from maturity assessment and framework design through to full operational embedding. The modular design allows the service to be phased or tailored to specific programme needs.
“We don’t just deliver a framework and walk away,” Mahmoud said. “We work alongside programme teams, building capability through doing. By the end of the engagement, risk data is actively informing decisions, teams are aligned, and the organisation can sustain and evolve its approach independently.”
The service covers three core capability areas: governance and reporting structures; integrated risk assessment and analytics processes; and capability development, including technology platforms and skills uplift.
Built for defence realities
The Integrated Defence Risk Management service is designed to support both new defence programmes and the recovery of challenged projects.
“Defence projects operate in uniquely complex environments – long timelines, multiple stakeholders, evolving requirements and technical uncertainty,” La Franchi said. “This service gives programme leaders the quantitative foundation they need to navigate that complexity with confidence.”
The service is available immediately to the Australian Department of Defence and defence industry partners.
